Aurora Tonight: Is the Northern Lights Forecast Looking Good?

Likely, at elevated latitudes. The current Kp index is 4.3 and NOAA forecasts a peak of Kp 5.67 (G2), which can push the aurora across high-latitude regions — Scotland, Scandinavia, Canada, the northern US and southern New Zealand. Visibility depends on darkness, clear skies and how far you are from the auroral zone.

Roughly: Kp 3–4 for far-northern locations (northern Scandinavia, Iceland, Alaska), Kp 5 (G1) for Scotland and the northern US, Kp 6–7 (G2–G3) for northern Germany and the northern-tier US, and Kp 8–9 (G4–G5) for the mid-latitudes and central Europe. The higher the Kp, the further from the poles the auroral oval extends.

The hours around local midnight are usually best — typically 10 PM to 2 AM local time. You also need true darkness and clear skies, so a moonless, cloud-free night away from city light pollution gives the strongest chance. The aurora itself can appear at any time the geomagnetic activity is high enough.

In the Northern Hemisphere, look toward the northern horizon. During strong storms the aurora can climb overhead and even spread to the southern sky. In the Southern Hemisphere, look south for the aurora australis. A clear horizon with no buildings or trees in the way helps.

The short-term (30–90 minute) aurora forecast from NOAA's OVATION model is fairly reliable because it's based on real-time solar wind measured at the L1 point. The 3-day Kp forecast is more uncertain — it depends on predicting when coronal mass ejections will arrive, which can be off by several hours. Watch the live Kp index for the real-time picture.

It is much harder from a city because light pollution washes out the fainter glow. During strong storms (Kp 7+) the brightest displays can still be seen from city outskirts, but for the best experience drive 30–60 minutes to a dark-sky location away from artificial light.